Using Proper Mean Generation Intervals in Modeling of COVID-19

In susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered (SEIR) epidemic models, with the exponentially distributed duration of exposed/infectious statuses, mean generation interval (GI, time lag between infections a primary case and its secondary case) equals latent period (LP) plus infectious (IP). It was widely reported that GI for COVID-19 is as short 5 days. However, many works in top journals used longer LP or IP sum (i.e., GI), e.g., >7 This discrepancy will lead to overestimated basic reproductive number exaggerated expectation infection attack rate (AR) control efficacy. We argue it important use suitable epidemiological parameter values proper estimation/prediction. Furthermore, we propose an model assess transmission dynamics Belgium, Israel, United Arab Emirates (UAE). estimated time-varying [ R 0 ( t )] based on deaths data found Belgium has highest AR followed by Israel UAE.